Thursday, September 13, 2012

Research: Stock Market and the Moon Phase


Moon Phase vs Stock Change


Stock Market has been always tricky and unpredictable. Financial analysts come up with theories everyday to predict the drop or jump of a given stock market. They do this by analyzing many external factors that might affect this change including politics. Yet analysts keep getting dazzled on how the market can get kinky sometimes.

We keep linking the price change to parameters in our daily life, a war in Greece, or a new Apple product. However, no one ever thought to projecting this fluctuation against a measured that is not influenced by man. Something that human nor politics can control. I'm not being superstitious here but when I share what I found, it'll give you some fruits for thought.

The Work

Let us say I have dates and I have prices. I can extract Year, Month and Day from the date but with some little work and a help from the startdate guys I was able to calculate, yes, the phase and illumination factor of the moon and then project it on the price. To try that out I selected Ahli United Bank (AUB) as my testing subject, and extracted 12 years worth of stock market, 2600+ worth of stock data prices from 2000 till 2012 from the Bahrain Stock Exchange. I Formatted  the data and post it to Google Spread Sheet.

After that I used Google Visualization API to create some sexy charts out of that. In a nut-shell, this is my result. click down to see the website.



Here are some snap shots









Findings

  1. 2012 AUB New Moons are 93% safe, they either Hold the stock price or increase it. So if someone wants to sell its good to select a New Moon date (Somewhere between 15 and 16 September). Lets monitor that until the rest of the year.
  2. 2012 AUB Waxing Gibbous Moon  (Near to a Full Moon)  (Spans from 24-27 September)  is dangerous there is a 50% chance that the stock will drop.
  3. So I would say for AUB it is good to buy on Waxing Gibbous Moon days for AUB and then sell them on the next New Moon.
  4. Each year the correlation differs for some reason if I bring another variable into the story I might find the relation.



Now the findings might differ of course from one company to another but it is essentially the formula.

Visit the website and you can even find more.

Disclaimer: This is just fruit for thought, a new edge if you will. I searched the net and no body have done it before so I said why don't I do it.



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